Marvel Is in Another Downswing

I don’t think it’ll last long – probably not even through the end of July – but Marvel is in another downswing.

I’ll explain what’s happening by using what is ostensibly a hit streaming series as proof.

The Perfect Franchise

Anyone outside the movie industry would struggle to understand what Marvel accomplished over a period of 11 years.

Starting with Iron Man in 2008, Marvel released a total of 23 films, and all of them, other than Thor: The Dark World, were great.

That’s not me saying that. It’s a combination of metrics such as IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Metacritic scores for each title.

More importantly, from Disney’s perspective, all these films destroyed the box office to varying degrees.

Even the one that seemed doomed to fail, Guardians of the Galaxy, somehow evolved into an anchor franchise.

Folks, if you weren’t there for this turn of events in 2014, you will never understand how improbable it was.

Guardians of the Galaxy was a comic book series that even Comic Book Guy would have considered obscure.

Disney identified Groot and Rocket Raccoon as potentially marketable merchandise sellers, chose the right director, and here we are.

Now, that director is running the DC equivalent of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which underscores the project’s success.

There are countless viral videos of people standing up and cheering at seminal moments of Avengers: Endgame.

For even casual moviegoers, it was one of the most memorable crowd reaction films of our lifetimes and probably THE best for many.

There’s an important subtext to this scene, one that was never fully appreciated.

Iron Man, Thor, and Captain America weren’t enough to overcome Thor. But the entirety of the MCU turned the tide of battle.

That was Marvel executives telling their fans, “You did this. It’s all because of you.”

Marvel released nine movies that earned at least $1 billion in box office during the 2010s.

The film industry had never seen anything like it, and Marvel reigned supreme at the movies.

An Error in Judgment

In the aftermath of Avengers: Endgame and Spider-Man: Far From Home, Marvel had no stories left to tell from those early days.

With Tony Stark and Natasha Romanoff dead, the characters went their separate ways, which was a mistake.

Disney incorrectly believed that fans would watch any Marvel movie.

So, why should the studio pay Robert Downey Jr. and Scarlett Johansson tens of millions of dollars?

This was an instance of brutal timing that still impacts Marvel to this day. Johansson’s swan song was intended to be Black Widow.

That prequel would have elevated Florence Pugh to the title of Black Widow, as a similar handoff occurred on Disney+.

That’s where The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (TFAWS) was supposed to debut first. Alas, a pandemic occurred.

This black swan event flipped WandaVision into being the first MCU project on Disney+, which worked out well for all involved.

Unfortunately, TFAWS featured a script that involved…an infectious disease.

The reshoots weren’t enough to save the story in the eyes of many fans, who were already dubious about The Falcon becoming Captain America.

This setback was the first of many frustrating ones during the pandemic, but I won’t recount them all.

Instead, let’s focus on the throughline here. Marvel fully intended to switch out famous actors for ones with lower price tags.

For that strategy to work, an unspoken imperative existed. The new characters had to debut as impactfully as possible.

This tricky proposition rarely goes well in pop culture, as demonstrated by all the British bands who weren’t the Beatles and the hair bands who weren’t Def Leppard.

Consumers are savvy enough to recognize a knockoff product. Yu-Gi-Oh! isn’t Pokemon. Period.

Marvel Is in Another Downswing

The latest demonstration of this issue occurred earlier this year.

That’s when the oft-delayed Captain America: Brave New World finally debuted in theaters.

The film earned a modest $415.1 million. Even worse, its lackluster quality proved a drag on Thunderbolts*.

The quick MCU follow-up film is really, really good, but it has grossed even less, around $381 million as I type this.

In racing terms, Disney dropped the baton. It was an unforced error that has had profound consequences.

I’m an Anthony Mackie superfan. He’s brilliant in two of my favorite movies, We Are Marshall and The Adjustment Bureau.

However, fans haven’t forgiven him for the fact that he’s not Steve Rogers or maybe even Chris Evans.

Since TFAWS wasn’t a memorable series – due to circumstances, it was a hot mess with fun leads – people didn’t buy into Captain America 4.

Had that film starred Evans, fairly or not, I’m confident it would have done better.

Disney has since tacitly admitted its mistake. The attempt to reduce the salaries of actors was an accounting error.

In trying to save itself millions, Disney cost itself billions. That’s an objectively accurate statement based on what we’ve witnessed over the past five years.

Not coincidentally, Marvel released that promo of a bunch of chairs. It featured the name of basically every MCU actor you know.

Suddenly, Robert Downey Jr. is worth whatever amount of money he wants.

Just four years ago, Disney tried not to pay Scarlett Johansson what she deserved.

Still, the damage has been done, and we just got our latest proof.

For the week of May 26^th through June 1^st, Brave New World managed only 750 million viewer minutes.

In December, Deadpool & Wolverine gained 1.818 billion minutes during its first week. The difference is glaring.

Disney’s Other Streaming Hits

I expect that Brave New World will hang around the charts for about three weeks, which would be a VERY short run.

So, that’s two MCU films this year that have already struggled, putting Marvel in a downswing.

Also, Daredevil: Born Again never charted on Disney+, and Ironheart doesn’t appear likely to do so, either.

I suspect Marvel’s current lull will end with The Fantastic Four: First Steps, which opens in four weeks.

Still, it’s hard watching Marvel continue to step on this many rakes. And if Fantastic Four disappoints, this cold streak continues until December 2026!

Anyway, this is technically a Nielsen Streaming Ratings article with a Marvel rant thrown in for good measure.

So, here are Disney’s streaming hits for the week in question:

• The Handmaid’s Tale – 900 million viewer minutes
• Bluey – 863 million viewer minutes
• NCIS – 833 million viewer minutes
• Grey’s Anatomy – 801 million viewer minutes
• Criminal Minds – 690 million viewer minutes
• Family Guy – 652 million viewer minutes
• Law & Order: SVU – 548 million viewer minutes
• Bob’s Burgers – 533 million viewer minutes
• The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives – 427 million viewer minutes
• Lilo & Stitch – 394 million viewer minutes
• Andor – 385 million viewer minutes
• Moana 2 – 215 million viewer minutes

Finally, I feel like I should stress that there were only eight programs on streaming that gained at least 750 million viewer minutes that week.

Hulu and Disney+ streamed five of them. That’s how dominant Disney has become in the streaming industry.

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Feature Photo: Den of Geek